Annual Report for the Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland October 2015

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MINISTERIAL FOREWORD

Tackling child poverty is a key priority for this Government, and fundamental to the success of our country. From our first Child Poverty Strategy published in 2011, to the recent appointment of an Independent Advisor on Poverty reporting directly to the First Minister this year, we have taken a number of policy decisions and actions that have helped maximise the incomes of families across Scotland.

A key part of our strategy is to put in place an innovative measurement framework to enable us to report on our progress. This framework, developed with experts and leading children's organisations, addresses both the wide range of drivers of poverty as well as the impact of poverty on the lives of children and their families. It is based around Pockets, Prospects and Places. This means that we focus on maximising household resources, improving children's wellbeing and life chances, and provision of well-designed, sustainable places.

This report sets out our progress against the measurement framework, and includes examples of action being taken by the Scottish Government in relevant areas alongside examples of the excellent work being taken forward by local authorities, the third sector and business. We are grateful for the advice of the Ministerial Advisory Group on Child Poverty in developing the report, and in particular we would like to thank everyone who has helped us to illustrate the report by providing examples.

The requirement for Scottish Ministers to publish a Child Poverty Strategy and to report annually on that strategy are set out in the UK Government's Child Poverty Act 2010[1]. Recent legislation introduced by the UK Government[2] proposes significant changes to that Act which means the UK Government will no longer be required to report on income targets. Instead, the focus would move to 'worklessness' and 'educational attainment', ignoring the increasing problem of in-work poverty which affects 120,000 children in Scotland. Further, the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission will be renamed the Social Mobility Commission and have a much narrower remit.

I have made clear that I am strongly opposed to these changes and they will not be supported by the Scottish Government. Focusing on worklessness ignores the 67% of UK children in poverty who live in a household where one or more adults are working.

As this report highlights, we want to measure and report on child poverty statistics not try to ignore them. Therefore I intend to use this opportunity to develop a specific Scottish approach to measuring, and reporting on child poverty as well as the targets and action being taken across Scotland to tackle child poverty. We will do this in consultation with our Ministerial Advisory Group on Child Poverty, our Independent Poverty Advisor and other stakeholders and bring forward plans in 2016.

We will build on the measurement framework we already have in place, and which we will continue to report on. I want our approach to reflect the priority we continue to place on this challenge, our desire to effect real change, and our ultimate ambition to eradicate child poverty.

Child poverty remains a central issue for this Government. Whilst it is clear that having the full powers over taxation, social security, and job creation would give us the economic levers to do much more to tackle poverty and inequality I am committed to using all the powers we do have to continue to address and reduce child poverty in Scotland.

Photo of Alex Neil Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Communities and Pensioners’ Rights
ALEX NEIL
CABINET SECRETARY FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE, COMMUNITIES AND PENSIONERS' RIGHTS

INTRODUCTION

Purpose and scope of the report

The Child Poverty Act 2010 ('the Act') requires Scottish Ministers to publish a Scottish Child Poverty Strategy, review and revise it every three years, and report annually to the Scottish Parliament on measures it has taken to progress the Strategy.

Scottish Ministers published the revised Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland in March 2014, which builds upon the original Strategy published in 2011. This document is the second annual report that relates to the revised Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland (2014), and the fifth annual report in relation to the first Child Poverty Strategy for Scotland, published in 2011.

Child poverty in Scotland is affected by a mix of devolved and reserved policy measures, and the Scottish Strategy must focus on policy matters that are devolved to the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Ministers.

Structure of the report

Chapter 2 details progress against the UK-wide targets set out in the Child Poverty Act, and against alternative measures of child poverty.

Chapters 3–5 report progress in relation to the Child Poverty Measurement Framework For Scotland.

The measurement framework, which was set out in the 2014 annual report, consists of a wide set of indicators intended to help government, the Scottish Parliament, and stakeholders monitor progress against the outcomes over time.

The measurement framework is structured around three key outcomes, and Chapters 3–5 of this report each cover one of the outcomes:

Chapter 3 – Pockets: Maximising financial resources of families on low income

Chapter 4 – Prospects: Improved life chances of children in poverty

Chapter 5 – Places: Children from low income households live in well-designed, sustainable places

For each key outcome, there are a number of 'intermediate outcomes', and each intermediate outcome has one or more associated indicators. Chapters 3–5 present the most recent figures for each indicator (usually from 2014 or 2013), compare them to the figures published in the 2014 annual report, and set them within the context of longer-term trends, where possible.

It should be noted that, for the majority of the indicators, change between the latest and previous year is not statistically significant – in other words, the apparent change might be due to random variation rather than a true, underlying change. This reflects the fact that most indicators measure longer-term outcomes, which are unlikely to change substantially year-on-year. In future reports, there will be a longer period over which to assess change since the 2014 report baseline. However, in the current report, we have, where possible, used retrospective data (i.e. from before the baseline) to put the most recent figures into the context of a longer-term trend.

The Annex provides more detail on the methods used, including data sources and source years.

Throughout Chapters 3–5, you can find examples of Scottish Government, local government, and third party action being taken to address child poverty in Scotland. Where possible, case studies or real-life examples have been included, to demonstrate the real world impact on children and families across Scotland.

Overview

Tackling child poverty is a key priority for the Scottish Government, and the Scottish Government is, of course, delighted to see areas in which performance has improved since the 2014 annual report. We believe that children in Scotland deserve the best possible start in life, and we do not want to see any child being born into, or condemned to live a life of poverty. Activity to address this since the last annual report has been significant.

We continue to support people on low income through initiatives such as:

Restoring the UK Government cut in funding for Council Tax Benefit successor arrangements. The Council Tax Reduction Scheme protects over 515,000 vulnerable households in Scotland including more than 86,000 single parents;

Fully mitigating the bedroom tax in Scotland through Discretionary Housing Payments. We are providing local authorities with £90 million to support those affected by the Bedroom Tax in Scotland between 2013/2016. This will help up to 72,000 households including around 11,000 households with one or more children; and

Providing full funding for the £38 million per annum Scottish Welfare Fund.

We are also providing funding for additional advice and support services and wider activities as part of the social wage such as free prescriptions, free eye examinations, introducing free school meals for all children in primaries 1 to 3 and free personal care for older people.

Tackling child poverty remains a top priority so where performance hasn't improved, we will use this to inform our approach and actions.

Next steps

This report has been developed in discussion with the Ministerial Advisory Group on Child Poverty and other stakeholders including local government and COSLA, and the Scottish Government would like to thank everyone who has contributed to its development. The information that has been provided, and in particular the case studies, allows us to demonstrate the wide range of activity that is going on across Scotland.

Going forward, we will continue to work closely with the Ministerial Advisory Group to refine and develop the measurement framework and our approach to tackling poverty. The framework will allow us to identify what is working well, and will direct us to areas where more work is needed.

Ministers will continue to review the overall approach to reporting on child poverty and decide, with the Advisory Group, on the best way forward for Scotland in 2016 and beyond.

CHILD POVERTY IN SCOTLAND

This chapter details progress against the targets set out in the Child Poverty Act 2010 'the Act', and against alternative measures of child poverty.

The Act as it currently stands sets out UK-wide targets relating to the eradication of child poverty. It provides that it is the duty of the UK Government to ensure that the child poverty targets are met in relation to the year commencing 1 April 2020. The Act defines the following child poverty targets for 2020:

Relative poverty – to reduce the proportion of children who live in relative low income, before housing costs (BHC), to less than 10%.

Absolute poverty – to reduce the proportion of children who live in absolute poverty, before housing costs, to less than 5%.

Combined low income and material deprivation – to reduce the proportion of children who live in material deprivation and low income, before housing costs, to less than 5%.

Persistent poverty – to reduce the proportion of children who live in persistent poverty, before housing costs, to less than 7%.

Relative poverty

Relative poverty measures whether incomes for the lowest income households are increasing at the same rate as those for middle income households in any year. While the Act defines the child poverty targets using a 'before housing costs' measure, it can be argued that disposable income after housing costs (AHC) have been deducted is a better measure of standard of living. For this reason, both measures are presented here.

The percentage of children in relative poverty before housing costs was 14% in 2013/14, a decrease from 19% the previous year. In 2013/14, there were 140 thousand children in Scotland living in relative poverty before housing costs, 40 thousand fewer than in 2012/13.

This continues the long-term decreasing trend in child poverty in Scotland, with the decrease in the latest year reversing the increase seen in 2012/13.

Much of the fall in relative child poverty before housing costs in 2013/14 reflects the improved economic circumstances. The latest year has seen increases in employment, particularly around full-time working. There has also been an increase in lone parent employment rates in Scotland. Employment remains the best route out of poverty, and a recovering labour market with increases in employment, particularly full-time employment, has increased household income for families with children.

While benefits increased at about the same rate as average earnings, but below inflation, increases in employment and hours worked, have increased household income. Additionally, the increase in the personal tax allowance increased net income for those in employment (and earning above the threshold).

However, after housing costs, child poverty did not decrease in 2013/14. The percentage of children in relative poverty after housing costs remained at 22% in 2013/14, unchanged from 2012/13. In 2013/14, 210 thousand children were living in poverty after housing costs – more than one in five children in Scotland.

Changes to housing benefit and increases in both private sector and social sector rents greater than increases in earnings mean that while incomes increased, there was not necessarily any improvement in standards of living.

Relative child poverty

Source: HBAI dataset, DWP

Absolute poverty

Absolute poverty measures whether incomes for the lowest income households are increasing in line with inflation – whether living standards are maintained over time. Children are in absolute poverty if they are living in a household where equivalised income is below 60% of the inflation adjusted median income in 2010/11. While the Act defines the child poverty targets using a 'before housing costs' measure, it can be argued that disposable income after housing costs have been deducted is a better measure of standard of living. For this reason, both measures are presented here.

In 2013/14, 16% of children in Scotland were living in absolute poverty before housing costs, a decrease from 20% the previous year. There were 150 thousand children living in absolute poverty before housing costs, 50 thousand fewer than in 2012/13.

In 2013/14, while benefits and average earnings increased at a slower rate than inflation, the shift into employment (particularly the shift from part-time to full-time employment) has meant an increase in household income for many families, and increases in household income at a faster rate than inflation.

However, after housing costs, there was little change in the rate of absolute child poverty. In 2013/14, 24% of children were living in absolute poverty after housing costs, compared with 25% the previous year. This indicates that while household income before housing costs increased at a faster rate than inflation, increases in housing costs have meant little or no improvement in living standards compared with 2012/13.

Absolute child poverty

Source: HBAI dataset, DWP

Combined low income and material deprivation

Material deprivation is a measure of whether children are going without the basic goods and services which are considered essential to maintain an acceptable standard of living. While the Act defines the child poverty targets using a 'before housing costs' measure, it can be argued that disposable income after housing costs have been deducted is a better measure of standard of living. For this reason, both measures are presented here.

In 2013/14, 13% of children in Scotland were living in combined low income before housing costs and material deprivation. In 2013/14, 130 thousand children were living in combined low income before housing costs and material deprivation, 20 thousand more than the previous year. This continues the increasing trends in the proportion of children in Scotland living in low income before housing costs and material deprivation.

After housing costs, 14% of children in Scotland were living in combined low income and material deprivation – 140 thousand children. This continues the increasing trend in the proportion of children living in low income after housing costs and material deprivation seen over recent years.

Child material deprivation and low income combined and relative poverty (BHC)

Source: HBAI dataset, DWP. Changes in the material deprivation questions in 2010/11 created a break in the series. Data for 2010/11 onwards is not directly comparable with that prior to 2010/11.

Child material deprivation and low income combined and relative poverty (AHC)

Source: HBAI dataset, DWP. Changes in the material deprivation questions in 2010/11 created a break in the series. Data for 2010/11 onwards is not directly comparable with that prior to 2010/11.

Persistent poverty

Scotland-level analysis of persistent poverty is not currently available. It is anticipated that estimates of persistent poverty levels in Scotland will be available in early 2016.

Conclusions

Over the last decade, relative child poverty before housing costs has been falling. Relative child poverty in 2013/14 was 14%, a decrease from 24% in 2002/03. Progress has been made over the last decade in meeting the target of less than 10% of children living in relative poverty before housing costs. However, after housing costs are taken into account, while child poverty has fallen, the decrease is half that seen in the target measure.

Similarly, the rate of absolute poverty before housing costs has been falling over the last decade, from 25% in 2002/03 to 16% in 2013/14. While progress has been made in reducing absolute child poverty, the rate of absolute child poverty before housing costs in 2013/14 remains significantly higher than the target of 5% by 2020. And after housing costs, the decrease in absolute child poverty over the last decade is significantly smaller, with nearly one in four children living in absolute poverty after housing costs in 2013/14.

Over recent years, while relative child poverty has been falling, child low income and material deprivation has been increasing. While incomes for families with children have been increasing, this has not been reflected in improvements in living standards for all children.

POCKETS: MAXIMISING HOUSEHOLD RESOURCES OF FAMILIES ON LOW INCOME

This chapter presents data for the indicators associated with the following four intermediate outcomes (which are also highlighted in Figure 3.1 below).

Maximised financial entitlements of families on low income

Reduced household spend of families on low income

Families on low income are managing finances appropriately and are accessing all financial entitlements

Parents are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

Figure 3.1: Logic model for 'Pockets' outcome

Table 3.1 summarises how the baseline figures published in the 2014 annual report compare to the most recent figures for each indicator (usually from 2014 or 2013 – more detail on the dates and sources of data for each indicator are provided in the Annex). The assessment of performance is based on whether there has been a statistically significant change in the desired direction ('performance improving'), a statistically significant change in the opposite direction ('performance worsening'), or no statistically significant change ('performance maintaining').

Table 3.1 – Summary of performance against the 'pockets' indicators

Indicator

2014 report baseline compared to most recent

Percentage of working people earning less than the Living Wage

17.6% → 18.4%

'performance maintaining'

Average cost of 25 hour per week private nursery care for children aged 2 or over

£103.65 → £99.93

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles who are not managing well financially

35% → 28%

'performance improving'

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles where someone has a bank account

90% → 93%

'performance maintaining'

Employment rate of adults with dependent children

79.3% → 80.0%

'performance maintaining'

Underemployment rate of adults with dependent children

8.4% → 8.0%

'performance maintaining'

Ratio of earnings that go to the top 10% of earners, divided by the earnings of the bottom 10% (S90/S10)

16.4 → 15.7

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of adults with dependent children with low or no qualifications (SCQF level 4 or below)

9.2% → 8.9%

'performance maintaining'

All but one of the 'pockets' indicators have been assessed as 'performance maintaining'. This reflects the fact that the indicators measure longer-term outcomes, which are unlikely to change substantially year-on-year. Below, we consider each of the indicators in turn, looking at the longer-term trends and any additional data that helps put these into context.

Intermediate outcome 1: Maximised financial entitlements of families on low income

Indicator 1.1 Percentage of working people earning less than the Living Wage

An important element of incomes is earnings. This indicator was chosen in recognition of the crucial role of good quality, paid employment as a route out of poverty, and reflects the Scottish Government's commitment to promoting the Living Wage.

In 2014, 18.4% of employees in Scotland earned less than the Living Wage, compared to 17.6% in 2013. The chart opposite shows there has been little change in the percentage since 2011.

It should be noted that this indicator draws on hourly wages data, and low pay and poverty may persist for those earning the Living Wage or above, but who work a low number of hours. This indicator should therefore be read in conjunction with the underemployment indicator (indicator 4.2).

Percentage of the working population earning less than the Living Wage[3]

ACTION

At the Living Wage Summit on 3 June, the First Minister announced that the Scottish Government is now an accredited Living Wage employer. We are committed to leading by example and actively promoting the Living Wage across Scotland, and providing funding to the Poverty Alliance to promote take-up of the Living Wage Accreditation Scheme, in every sector, across Scotland. There are currently over 300 Living Wage Accredited Employers – which is over half way to our target of at least 500 Scots-based Living Wage Accredited Employers by the end of March 2016.

The Living Wage activity discussed above has mostly taken place since April 2014, so the impacts won't be reflected in the latest available data.

Intermediate outcome 2: Reduced household spend of families on low income

Indicator 2.1 Average cost of 25 hour per week private nursery care for children aged 2 or over

Childcare is one of the most significant costs for parents that is not shared by other household types. High childcare costs are one of the key issues affecting parents on low income in particular, and form a major barrier to taking up employment or increasing hours worked for many parents.

In 2014 the average weekly cost of 25 hours private nursery care for children over 2 was £99.93, compared to an average cost of £103.65 in 2013. These figures are adjusted to account for inflation over the time period. The chart opposite shows childcare costs rose substantially between 2007 and 2010, and have stayed broadly at the same level since then.

Average cost of 25 hours per week private nursery care for children aged 2 or over [4]

ACTION

The expansion of funded early learning and childcare is a key priority of the Scottish Government:

All 3 and 4 year olds receive 600 hours of funded early learning and childcare, and this has recently been expanded to 27% of 2 year olds.

The First Minister has committed to increase this to 1140 hours a year (30 hours a week) by the end of the next parliament.

Intermediate outcome 3: Families on low income are managing finances appropriately and are accessing all financial entitlements

Indicator 3.1 Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles who are not managing well financially

This indicator measures the perceptions of those on low income about their ability to manage financially. In 2014, 28% of low income families reported not managing well financially. This is a statistically significant decrease from the baseline of 35% in 2012. The chart opposite shows the percentage of low income households with children not managing has fluctuated over the last decade, and was lowest in 2007 and 2010 at 27%, and highest in 2012 at 35%.

In comparison, the proportion of all other households with children that report not managing well financially has been relatively stable and consistently lower than among low income households with children, varying between 9% and 12% since 2004.

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles who are not managing well financially

Indicator 3.2 Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles where someone has a bank account

This indicator measures financial inclusion and access to basic financial services. Households without a bank account are unable to take advantage of features like direct debits, which can result in lower outgoings.

In 2014, among low income households with children, 93% had access to a bank account. This compares to 92% in 2013, and 90% in 2012 and 2011[5]. The chart opposite shows a consistent increasing trend in the percentage of households with a bank account since 2004, with the exception of a slight drop in 2008.

In comparison, the proportion with access to a bank account among all other households with children has been relatively
stable, varying between 96% and 98% since 2004.

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles where someone has a bank account

CASE STUDY

The Early Years Collaborative (EYC) is the world's first multi-agency, quality-improvement programme to support the transformation of early years services. The EYC supports the adoption of an improvement methodology to enable local practitioners to plan and test an idea for change in a real work setting where they then observe the changes, measure the results and act on what has been learned before implementing and scaling up the change more widely. Tackling child poverty is a specific key change where we are focusing work to identify interventions that will make the biggest difference in improving outcomes. This work has a focus on achieving income maximisation for families that require it.

For example, Community Planning Partnerships (CPP) have been working to ensure that women receive better advice and guidance about financial matters. This has predominantly been through health services, where midwives are being trained to refer pregnant women and families with young children to income maximisation services such as the Citizen's Advice Bureau. This work is beginning to show positive outcomes for families and has raised several common themes. Those CPPs have agreed to work collectively together to share learning across the EYC around what works in income maximisation.

Intermediate outcome 4: Parents are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

Indicator 4.1 Employment rate of adults with dependent children

The employment rate of parents was 80.0% in 2013, compared to 79.3% in 2012. The chart opposite shows that parental employment rates have remained fairly stable over the last decade, varying from a low of 79.0% in 2004 to a high of 81.4% in 2008.

Employment rate of adults with dependent children

CASE STUDY – NORTH LANARKSHIRE COUNCIL

North Lanarkshire Council's Childcare Development Fund provides funding to support parents who are entering employment, for costs of the first four weeks of childcare until their tax credits are worked out.

Through Childcare Key Workers, parents are also supported to source appropriate childcare, and are offered guidance on sustainable childcare that will suit their needs. This can often involve ensuring that the individual has the right job for them and that they are realistic about the childcare that will be required, for example if they are intending to work shifts.

Indicator 4.2 Underemployment rate of adults with dependent children

The underemployment rate is defined as the percentage of working people looking to increase their hours either in their current job, an additional job, or a different job. This is important as a high employment rate may mask a situation where individuals are working but are not in employment that meets their needs.

In 2013, 8.0% of working parents were underemployed, compared to 8.4% in 2012. The chart opposite shows a general upwards trend in parental underemployment over the last decade, from a low of 5.6% in 2005 to a high of 8.5% in 2011.

Underemployment rate of adults with dependent children

Indicator 4.3 Ratio of earnings that go to the top 10% of earners, divided by the earnings of the bottom 10% (S90/S10)

Earnings inequality, as measured by the earnings that go to the top 10% of earners, divided by the earnings of the bottom 10%, is a common measure of inequality, frequently used in international studies.

In 2014, the earnings of the top 10% of earners were 15.7 times the earnings of the bottom 10% of earners, compared to 16.4[6] times in 2013. The chart opposite shows a fluctuating – but overall increasing – trend in earnings inequality over the last decade, with the highest level of inequality occurring in 2011.

The share of earnings that goes to the bottom 10% of earners is generally very low – below 2% of total earnings. This makes this indicator very sensitive to changes among lower earners. The trend of increasing inequality up to 2011 was largely due to a decreasing share of earnings going to the bottom 10%. In recent years, the fall in earnings inequality was due to a decrease in the share of earnings going to the top 10% of earners, rather than any improvements in earnings for the bottom 10%.

Earnings that go to the top 10% of earners, divided by the earnings of the bottom 10% (S90/S10)

Indicator 4.4 Percentage of adults with dependent children with low or no qualifications (SCQF level 4 or below)

This indicator measures whether individuals have the required skills to take up good-quality employment. In 2013, 8.9% of parents had low or no[7] qualifications, compared to 9.2% in 2012. The chart opposite shows a consistent decreasing trend in the percentage of parents with low or no qualifications between 2004 and 2013.1

Percentage of adults with dependent children with low or no qualifications (SCQF level 4 or below)

CASE STUDY – FIFE COUNCIL

Young Mums @ School works with expectant and young mums, both below and above the statutory school leaving age, to support their continued attendance at school and to focus on planning a positive future for both mum and baby. Young Mums @ School provides emotional and practical support to enable girls to continue with their education and studies at school before and after the birth of their child.

The service, led and managed by Fife Council's Education and Children's Services Directorate, supports around 10-20 girls aged between 13 and 17 years each year. A tailored package of support is provided to each girl in response to her own unique situation. The range of support provided includes:

Family Support – Each girl is offered Family Support by an appointed Family Worker from the Family and Community Support Team (FACST). This involves close liaison with school, Midwifery Services, Family Nurse Partnership if appropriate and other teen parent provision

Support in School – Family Workers liaise closely with schools to ensure that the expectant or young mum is offered a flexible package tailored to meet her changing circumstances

Support with Childcare and Transport Costs – Funding is provided for each girl to access a registered childcare provider to enable her to attend school. Childcare is normally provided for school hours and term time only but can also be extended to cover study for exam preparation as well as peer learning and groupwork opportunities

Peer Support and Groupwork – Together all young mums are provided with regular opportunities to meet together and share experiences. This has incorporated parenting inputs, child development, budgeting and financial management as well as support with maintaining a tenancy.

Outcomes from the project are positive, and a number of participants have accessed Further Education opportunities or gained employment.

One young mum involved in the project said:

"Young Mums @ School has given me the chance to continue with my education before and after the birth of my son. Without support, I would not have been able to stay on. They also have days where I meet other mums in my situation which makes me feel less alone and helps me believe I can get the job I have aspired to achieve." (Young Mum, Age 16)

PROSPECTS: IMPROVED LIFE CHANCES OF CHILDREN IN POVERTY

This chapter presents data for the indicators associated with the following four intermediate outcomes (which are also highlighted in figure 4.1).

Children from low income households have improving levels of physical and mental health

Children from low income households experience social inclusion and display social competence

Children from low income households have improving relative levels of educational attainment, achieving their full potential

Children from low income backgrounds are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

Figure 4.1: Logic model for 'Prospects' outcome

Table 4.1 summarises how the baseline figures published in the 2014 annual report compare to the most recent figures for each indicator (usually from 2014 or 2013 – more detail on the dates and sources of data for each indicator are provided in the Annex). The assessment of performance is based on whether there has been a statistically significant change in the desired direction ('performance improving'), a statistically significant change in the opposite direction ('performance worsening'), or no statistically significant change ('performance maintaining').

Table 4.1 – Summary of performance against the 'prospects' indicators

Indicator

2014 report baseline compared to most recent

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles with good or very good parent assessed health

91.8% → 91.8%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 13 and 15 year olds on free school meals with below average scores (14-40) on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS)

20% → 19%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles eating five portions of fruit and veg per day

10.2% → 8.9%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles spending four or more hours at a screen per day

14.1% → 15.4%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 15-year-old school pupils on free school meals smoking at least one cigarette a week

20.9% → 16.0%

'performance improving'

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles who have played sport in the last week

58.2% → 60.7%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother

80.0% → 79.2%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who agree that pupils in class accept them as they are

71.1% → 62.1%

'performance worsening'

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in numeracy

61.4% → 53.0%

'performance worsening'

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in reading

81.6% → 81.4%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well, very well or beyond the level in writing

60.9% → 56.3%

'performance maintaining'

Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children aged 4-12 from households in bottom three income deciles

9.4 → 9.2

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of adults from households with children in bottom three income deciles that are satisfied with local schools

91% → 89%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of school leavers from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school

82.4% → 84.4%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who think they will be in positive destinations after leaving school

86.4% → 86.6%

'performance maintaining'

Modern Apprenticeship starts

25,284 → 25,247

'performance maintaining'

Modern Apprenticeship completion rate

77% → 74%

'performance maintaining'

Most of the 'prospects' indicators have been assessed as 'performance maintaining'. This reflects the fact that the indicators measure longer-term outcomes, which are unlikely to change substantially year-on-year. Below, we consider each of the indicators in turn, looking at the longer-term trends and any additional data that helps put these into context.

Intermediate outcome 5: Children from low income households have improving levels of physical and mental health

Indicator 5.1 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles with good or very good parent assessed health

In 2012+2013 (combined), 91.8% of children in the lowest three income deciles were assessed by their parents as having good or very good health. This is the same level as in 2010+2011 (combined). There has been little change since 2003.

There has also been little change since 2003 in parentassessed health among 2-15 year olds in the top three income deciles. The percentage with good or very good health has varied between a high of 98.4% in 2010+11 (combined) and 96.7% in 2012+13 (combined).

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles with good or very good parent-assessed health

Indicator 5.2 Percentage of 13 and 15 year olds on free school meals with below average scores (14-40) on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS)

This indicator measures mental health among young people aged 13 and 15 through the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS). Respondents are asked to indicate how often they have experienced 14 positive thoughts and feelings related to wellbeing and psychological functioning in the last two weeks. WEMWBS scores are reported on a scale of 14 to 70, with higher numbers indicating better mental wellbeing. In 2013, 19% of 13 and 15 year olds receiving free school meals had a below average WEMWBS score[8], compared to 22% in 2010. Older data is not available for this indicator.

The percentage of 13 and 15 year olds not receiving free school meals with below average WEMWBS scores was 14% in 2013, compared to 15% in 2010.

Indicator 5.3 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles eating five portions of fruit and veg per day

In 2012+13 (combined), 8.9% of 2-15 year olds from households in the lowest three income deciles were eating the recommended five portions of fruit and vegetables a day, compared to 10.2% in 2010+2011 (combined), and 12.2% in 2008+09 (combined).

The percentage of 2-15 year olds eating five portions of fruit and veg a day has been consistently higher among households in the top three income deciles than those in the bottom three deciles: 18.5% in 2012+13 (combined), 16.0% in 2010+2011 (combined), and 17.5% in 2008+09 (combined).

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles eating five portions of fruit and vegetables per day

CASE STUDY – EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL

East Ayrshire Early Learning and Childcare Community Practitioners are based in local areas and offer a flexible, personalised and responsive service to families referred for support, including:

Routinely supporting families to maximise financial entitlements through direct help in completing benefit application forms, linking to the Financial Inclusion Team or supporting attendance at assessment meetings;

Providing individual and group sessions, which offer parents the opportunity to consider household spend, practice budgeting, and menu and shopping planning;

Supporting families in rural areas, where local availability, higher cost and transport limit choice and affordability, to access alternatives; and

Supporting parents to access education and training opportunities and complete college applications or college references.

Additional activity which contributes to tackling child poverty in East Ayrshire includes:

A small scale pilot to increase uptake of Healthy Start Vouchers and Vitamins is being undertaken in five establishments and offers families in receipt of qualifying benefits vouchers for fresh and frozen milk, fruit or vegetables. Local uptake currently sits at 72% of eligible households, with the aim to promote and support access to increase this to 92%.

Early Learning and Childcare works in partnership with the Council's Vibrant Communities Team to deliver the MEND weight management programme to improve the physical health of children and families, and to create community connections.

Family Buddies is a Public Social Partnership (PSP) of Local Authority, Health Board and Voluntary Sector organisations piloting an early intervention family support model. Many of the issues raised by families relate to material poverty, lack of opportunity and social isolation. The evaluation of the first year of the PSP is awaited but early results indicate good levels of success in reducing isolation, maximising income and improving families' circumstances.

Indicator 5.4 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles spending four or more hours at a screen per day

This is a recognised measure of sedentary activities. In 2012+2013 (combined), 15.4% of 2-15 year olds from households in the lowest three income deciles spent four or more hours a day looking at a screen, compared to 14.1% in 2008+2010 (combined), and 21.7% when the question was previously asked in 2003. The decrease from 2003 to 2008+2010 (combined) is statistically significant.

The percentage of 2-15 year olds spending four or more hours at a screen per day has been consistently lower among households in the top three income deciles than those in the bottom three deciles: 10.9% in 2003, 9.0% in 2008+2010 (combined), and 7.4% in 2012+13 (combined).

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles spending four or more hours at a screen per day

Indicator 5.5 Percentage of 15-year-old school pupils on free school meals smoking at least one cigarette a week

Indicator 5.5 measures adolescent smoking, a health behaviour that displays a strong social gradient. In 2013, 16.0% of 15 year olds receiving free school meals were regular smokers, defined as smoking at least one cigarette a week. This is a statistically significant decrease from 20.9% in 2010. The chart opposite shows an overall decreasing trend for this indicator.

The percentage of 15 year olds not receiving free school meals who are regular smokers has also decreased, but by a smaller amount: from 13.4% in 2006 to 11.0% in 2010 and 6.9% in 2013.

Percentage of 15-year-old school pupils on free school meals smoking at least one cigarette a week

Intermediate outcome 6: Children from low income households experience social inclusion and display social competence

This outcome is important both in terms of children's wellbeing and their ability to 'fit in' in a range of social situations, allowing them to benefit fully from educational and social opportunities which will ultimately benefit them in accessing good-quality employment.

Indicator 6.1 Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles who have played sport in the last week

This is included as a measure of participation in positive activities or hobbies, as well as participation in group activities. In 2012+2013 (combined), 60.7% of children aged 2-15 from households in the lowest three income deciles had played sport in the previous week. This compares to 58.2% in 2010+11 (combined), and 69.6% in 2008+09 (combined).

Since 2003, the percentage of 2-15 year olds who have played sport in the last week has been consistently higher among households in the top three income deciles than those in the bottom three deciles, varying between a high of 80.4% in 2010+11 (combined) and a low of 77.7% in 2012+13 (combined).

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles who have played sport in the last week

Indicator 6.2 Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother

This measures an aspect of a supportive home environment, which is a key contributor to both the social inclusion outcome and educational attainment. In 2014, 79.2% of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from the third least affluent households[9] reported that they find it easy to talk to their mother or stepmother, compared to 80.0% in 2010. The chart opposite shows that there has been virtually no change over time.

A similar lack of change over time is evident among children from the third most affluent households, with the percentage who find it easy to talk to their mother remaining at around 82-84% since 2002.

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother

Indicator 6.3 Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who agree that pupils in class accept them as they are

This focuses on social inclusion within the school context. In 2014, 62.1% of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from the third least affluent households agreed that pupils in their class accepted them as they were. This is a substantial and statistically significant decrease from 71.1% in 2010. It is unclear what has caused this large drop, although as the chart opposite shows, there has been a decreasing trend in this indicator over time.

Among children from the third most affluent households, there was a smaller decrease in the percentage who agreed that pupils in their class accepted them as they were: from around 80% in both 2002 and 2004 to 77.4% in 2010 and 71.6% in 2014.

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who agree that pupils in class accept them as they are

CASE STUDY – SCOTTISH BUSINESS IN THE COMMUNITY

The Business Engagement in Early Years programme is an excellent example of local responses to tackle poverty in their communities with the help of a third-sector organisation supported by government funding. The programme is designed to be flexible to meet the specific needs of different communities and to bring local businesses, schools and early years centres together to create sustainable relationships.

In March 2015, Scottish Business in the Community, with funding from the Scottish Government Early Years Change Fund, initiated a cross-cutting programme to enable local businesses to create sustainable relationships with Primary Schools and Early Years Centres in the most deprived areas of their communities. These relationships would allow business volunteers to assist Early Years Professionals and Primary Educators in providing the necessary tools to allow every child to reach their full potential and break the cycle of poverty.

The programme will liaise with businesses and local school or early years centres in order to foster sustainable relationships. The business will work with the school/centre to provide workshops, mentoring programmes, supply donations, parent nights, etc. as required by the school/centre and possible to be provided by the business. These relationships are brokered by SBC and the business volunteers will be given support and training to ensure they are best equipped to help the young children and their parents.

In the long-term, a toolkit will be created with two main goals – the first to allow primary schools and early years centres to better understand and work with businesses, the second to allow businesses to better understand and work with primary schools and early years centres. The toolkit will contain sample activity request forms for schools/centres to fill out and submit to businesses, workshop plans for business volunteers to use, and tips and advice on how to break down barriers between the education and private and third sectors. This will ensure that the programme can be implemented across Scotland after the pilot-programme has ended. This pilotprogramme is being run in 10 primary schools and/or early years centres in seven Council Regions. All of the primary schools and centres participating ranked very low on the 2012 SIMD Index.

Lloyds Bank has recently started a relationship with Langlee Early Years Centre, and particularly one call centre in Edinburgh. The Pentland House Call Centre for Lloyds Bank has committed to a regular (likely twice per year) clothing drive to provide clothes, shoes and other items (such as books) that the children and parents at the Langlee Early Years Centre need.

These donations help to improve the confidence of children and parents by improving their self-esteem. The donations also ensure that the children can fully engage with educational activities. For example, the manager of the Langlee Early Years Centre, Lesley Robertson, told SBC staff about one child who came to the centre that only had one pair of shoes. His class was going on a school trip and it required the children to have a change of shoes. Because this child did not own a second pair of shoes, he was not going to be able to attend the activity and therefore would not make the educational gains that his peers did.

It is needs such as this that the clothing donations from businesses such as Lloyds address, and in doing so, it enables the children to improve in other areas through engagement. Likewise, donations of clothing for parents can provide items for job interviews that may help get the parents who want to into employment.

Intermediate outcome 7: Children from low income households have improving relative levels of educational attainment, achieving their full potential

This outcome recognises that education plays a key role in contributing to the future prospects of Scotland's children.

The previous annual report included a placeholder for an educational attainment indicator. It has now been agreed to include three indicators measuring different aspects of educational attainment, focusing on numeracy, reading and writing.

Indicator 7.1 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in numeracy

The percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived datazones who performed well or very well in numeracy decreased from 61.4% in 2011 (the first time this measure was collected) to 53.0% in 2013. This decrease is statistically significant.

In contrast, there was no significant change in the percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% least deprived datazones who performed well or very well in numeracy – 77.0% in 2011 and 76.8% in 2013.

Indicator 7.2 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in reading

The percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived datazones who performed well or very well in reading was 81.6% in 2012 (the first time this measure was collected) and 81.4% in 2014. This difference is not statistically significant.

There was also no significant change in the percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% least deprived datazones who performed well or very well in reading – 95.3% in 2012 to 93.2% in 2014.

Indicator 7.3 Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well, very well or beyond the level in writing

The percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived datazones who performed well, very well or beyond the level[10] in writing was 60.9% in 2012 (the first time this measure was collected) and 56.3% in 2014. This difference is not statistically significant.

There was also no significant change in the percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% least deprived datazones who performed well, very well or beyond the level in writing – 79.1% in 2012 to 76.8% in 2014.

ACTION

The First Minister has made it clear that poverty should not be a barrier to success – and education is a vital tool to ensure greater equality of opportunity for all children. Parental engagement plays a vital role. We know that pupils achieve better results and make better progress in school when their parents are fully involved in their learning. We know that parents often want to get more involved – often they simply need better advice and support. The Primary 1 to 3 Read, Write, Count campaign, launched by the Cabinet Secretary for Education and Lifelong Learning in August 2015, aims to support parental involvement and family learning in those crucial early years of primary school. There are three main aspects to the campaign: the gifting of books and additional writing and counting materials to all P1-P3 children; a high profile social marketing campaign providing hints and tips to parents and reinforcing the importance of family learning above and beyond 'homework', and; additional outreach activity with families in the most disadvantaged circumstances.

The outreach activity, which will be piloted in 2016, is particularly relevant to families in poverty. This will seek to provide additional, targeted support, building on the assets that families have already and developing new and fun ways to learn together.

Indicator 7.4 Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children aged 4-12 from households in bottom three income deciles

The results of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) are presented as a difficulty score on a range from 0-40, with higher scores indicating higher risk of mental health and behavioural problems. A score up to 13 is considered normal. The mean score for children aged 4-12 from households in the bottom three income deciles was 9.2 in 2012+2013 (combined), compared to 9.4 in 2010+2011 (combined). As the chart opposite shows, the mean score was 10.1 in 2003 and in 2008. The scores in 2010/11 and 2012/13 were significantly lower than in 2003 and 2008/09, indicating a reduced risk of mental health and behavioural problems.

Since 2003, the mean SDQ score has been consistently lower among households in the top three income deciles than those in the bottom three deciles, varying between a high of 6.6 in 2010/11 and a low of 5.5 in 2012/13.

Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children aged 4-12 from households in bottom three income deciles

Indicator 7.5 Percentage of adults from households with children in bottom three income deciles that are satisfied with local schools

This has been included to provide an overall proxy of school quality. In 2014, 89% of adults with children in their household in the bottom three income deciles were satisfied with local schools. The analysis excludes those who expressed no opinion. This compares to 89% in 2013 and 91% in 2012. The chart opposite shows that there has been virtually no change over time on this measure.

Adults from households with children in the bottom three income deciles have very similar satisfaction levels with local schools to all other households with children, with satisfaction levels among the latter group varying between 87% and 90% since 2007.

Percentage of adults from households with children in bottom three income deciles that are satisfied with local schools

ACTION

The attainment gap in Scotland is unacceptable. The First Minister launched the Scottish Attainment Challenge in February 2015 to bring a greater sense of urgency and priority to this issue. The work is set firmly within the context of Curriculum for Excellence, and aims to focus and accelerate targeted improvements in literacy, numeracy and health and wellbeing. The Challenge has two main components:

A package of universal support, available to all in Scotland, will bring together three main initiatives:
• Local authorities will have direct access to a named Attainment Advisor who will work alongside local authority staff on agreed priorities which support the Challenge.
• National Hub – a virtual centre of educational expertise that will support the Challenge and play a key role in moving knowledge to action around the education system. It will incorporate a range of features to build collaborative learning and engage leaders and practitioners to support a self-improving education system.
• Support for inter-authority improvement partnerships – support will be provided for the inter-authority partnerships being developed by the Association of Directors of Education in Scotland, particularly where priorities are aligned with the Challenge.

The £100m Attainment Scotland Fund – a funding initiative over 4 years (2015-2019), targeted to supporting pupils in local authorities and schools with the highest concentrations of primary-aged pupils living in areas of deprivation. The focus of the Fund is on primary schools and targeted improvements in literacy, numeracy and health and wellbeing as the foundations for learning. The Fund currently supports two programmes:
• Local authorities – providing targeted support to local authorities with the largest concentration of primary-aged pupils living in deprived areas. The Fund is supporting the implementation of the improvement plans these authorities have developed focused on raising attainment in literacy, numeracy and health and wellbeing.
• Schools – working with 57 specific primary schools in other areas of Scotland that have significant proportions of their pupils living in deprived areas. These schools are supporting those facing some of the greatest challenges across Scotland, and will take a key role in implementing, supporting and spreading practice of what works to raise attainment, ambition and aspirations.

Intermediate outcome 8: Children from low income backgrounds are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

This outcome recognises the importance of work as a source of both income and life satisfaction and a major determinant of quality of life.

Indicator 8.1 Percentage of school leavers from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school

84.4% of pupils from the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones, who left school during or at the end of the academic year 2013/14, were in learning, training or work in March 2015. This compares to 82.4% in the previous year. As the chart opposite shows, the percentage in positive destinations has increased since 2009/10, when it was 72.8%.

The percentage of all school leavers who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school has also increased over time: from a low of 84% for those leaving in the 2007/08 academic year to a high of 91.7% for those leaving in the 2013/14 academic year.

Percentage of school leavers from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school[11]

Indicator 8.2 Percentage of 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who think they will be in positive destinations after leaving school

This is a measure of school children's aspirations, and looks at the expectations of 15 year olds for what they will do after leaving school. In 2014, 86.6% of children from the third least affluent households expected to be in a positive destination, defined as being in work, skills training, an apprenticeship, or going to college or university. The percentage in 2010 was almost the same at 86.4%. The chart opposite shows little change over the longer-term.

There has also been little change among children from the most affluent third of households: the percentage expecting to be in a positive destination has remained at around 90% since 2002.

Percentage of 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who think they will be in positive destinations after leaving school

Indicator 8.3 Number of Modern Apprenticeship starts

Modern Apprenticeships are one aspect of the availability of suitable work for young people. Indicators 8.3 and 8.4 should be used together.

There were 25,247 starts in 2014/15, compared to 25,284 in 2013/14. The chart opposite shows that the number of young people starting Modern Apprenticeships decreased between 2004/05 and 2008/09, then increased substantially until 2011/12, and has stayed relatively stable since.

Modern Apprenticeship starts

Indicator 8.4 Modern Apprenticeship completion rate

It should be noted that non-completion may be due to moves into another positive destination such as higher level work or further education and may not necessarily be indicative of a less favourable outcome for the young person concerned. In 2014/15 this was 74%, compared to 77% in 2013/14. The time series for this indicator (opposite) shows that it has been fairly stable over time.

Modern apprenticeship completion rate

ACTION

Implementing the recommendations of the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce (DYW) will support the Scottish Government's ambition to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021. We have committed £12 million in 2014/15 (£6.5 million to local government) and £16.6 million in 2015/16 to drive early action. We'll provide 30,000 new Modern Apprenticeship opportunities every year by 2020. In 2007 there were just 15,000 people starting Modern Apprenticeships. We are now delivering more than 25,000 Modern Apprentices each year (25,247 in 2014/15) and will increase the numbers to 30,000 by 2020.

In fact, £3.8 million was announced (from DYW) on 18 May 2015 to deliver an additional 500 MA opportunities in 2015/16 focused on higher level frameworks – the first step towards our commitment to deliver at least 30,000 opportunities each year by 2020.

CASE STUDY – CITY OF EDINBURGH COUNCIL

Working with the public, private and voluntary sectors, the Edinburgh Guarantee seeks to increase the number of jobs, further education and training opportunities being made available to young people in the city.

In recent years, it has become harder for young people to find their first opportunity on leaving school. The economic slowdown has had a major impact on young people, with reduced opportunities and increased competition for jobs rates up. In 2011 over 500 young people, more than 17% of the city's school leavers, were exiting the Edinburgh school system into unemployment, unable to secure work or a place in Further or Higher Education.

Without action there would have been significant implications for our young people, economy and communities, as the longer an individual is out of work the more entrenched their unemployment can become.

This issue could not be tackled by any one agency or organisation alone and it is for this reason that the Council developed cross-partner action – the Edinburgh Guarantee.

Since 2011, the Edinburgh Guarantee partnership approach has had the following impact:

93.1% of school leavers entering a positive destination when leaving secondary education – a 10% increase compared to 2011

2342 jobs, apprenticeships or training opportunities have been generated

400 employers have contributed to this success.

The Edinburgh Guarantee has made a tangible impact on the number of school leavers securing a positive destination. Yet our work does not stop here; the route to making further improvements will depend on our ability to harness the support and expertise of employers in career preparation and continue to open up suitable and meaningful opportunities for young people to help build the successful business and economy of tomorrow. So much great work is going on in the city and we hope to continue and improve on this.

PLACES: CHILDREN FROM LOW INCOME HOUSEHOLDS LIVE IN WELL-DESIGNED SUSTAINABLE PLACES

This chapter presents data for the indicators associated with the following four intermediate outcomes (which are also highlighted in Figure 5.1).

Children from low income households live in high quality, sustainable housing

Children from low income households grow up in places that are socially sustainable

Children from low income households grow up in places that are physically sustainable

Children from low income households grow up in places that are economically sustainable

Figure 5.1: Logic model for 'Places' outcome

Table 5.1 summarises how the baseline figures published in the 2014 Annual Report compare to the most recent figures for each indicator (usually from 2014 or 2013 – more detail on the dates and sources of data for each indicator are provided in the Annex). The assessment of performance is based on whether there has been a statistically significant change in the desired direction ('performance improving'), a statistically significant change in the opposite direction ('performance worsening'), or no statistically significant change ('performance maintaining').

Table 5.1 – Summary of performance against the 'places' indicators

Indicator

2014 report baseline compared to most recent

Average percentage of income spent on housing

9.8% → 10.0%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with condition of home

69% → 71%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree they can influence decisions affecting their local area

21% → 24%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of 13 and 15 years olds from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree that people in their area say hello and talk to each other on the street

63.8% → 64.0%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who have been the victim of one or more crimes in the past year

21.3%

N/A

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say drug misuse or dealing is common in their neighbourhood

34% → 27%

'performance improving'

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say their neighbourhood is a good place to live

80% → 85%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with quality of local public transport

76% → 79%

'performance maintaining'

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who can access green space within a 5-minute walk or less

60% → 62%

'performance maintaining'

Gap in employment rate between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

19.6 percentage points → 18.2 percentage points

'performance maintaining'

Gap in percentage of adults with low or no qualifications between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

15.9 percentage points → 16.5 percentage points

'performance maintaining'

Gap in personal internet use between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

12 percentage points → 8 percentage points

'performance improving'

Most of the 'Places' indicators for which a comparison between baseline and more recent figures can be made have been assessed as 'performance maintaining'. This reflects the fact that the indicators measure longer-term outcomes, which are unlikely to change substantially year on year. Below, we consider each of the indicators in turn, looking at the longer-term trends and any additional data that helps put these into context.

The indicators under the 'Places' outcome are intended as measures of the characteristics of the areas in which children grow up, rather than the characteristics of the children or their families themselves. Findings are therefore presented for the 15% most deprived Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) areas as a whole, and do not focus only on households with children.

Intermediate outcome 9: Children from low income households live in high quality, sustainable housing

Indicator 9.1 Average percentage of income spent on housing

This is a measure of the affordability of housing[12]. In 2013/14, households in Scotland spent on average 10% of their combined post-tax income on housing, compared to 9.8% in 2011/12. The chart opposite presents the ratio over time, showing an upwards trend in the percentage of household income spent on housing between 2002/03 and 2008/09. There was then a substantial increase in affordability between 2008/09 and 2009/10, driven by a decrease in median housing costs in this year. There has been little change since 2009/10, with incomes and housing costs changing at approximately the same rate.

Percentage spend of income on housing

Indicator 9.2 Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with condition of home

This is a proxy for housing quality. In 2013, 71% of households in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones (and 82% of those living in all other areas) were satisfied with the condition of their home, compared to 69% of those in the 15% most deprived datazones in 2012 (and 82% of those in all other areas). As the chart opposite illustrates, this indicator has fluctuated over time, with a low of 69% in 2007 and 2012, and a high of 76% in 2009.

Satisfaction with the condition of their home has been consistently higher among households not in the 15% most deprived SIMD, varying from a high of 86% in 2004/5 and 2005/6 to a low of 82% in 2012 and 2013.

Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with condition of their home

CASE STUDY – WEST LOTHIAN COUNCIL

A new approach has been developed by West Lothian Council to ensure prospective tenants of new build social housing have access to financial advice before moving into a tenancy. A partnership has been developed between West Lothian Council Housing Services & West Lothian Council Advice Shop. Since the launch of the campaign in 2014, 89% of all prospective new build tenants have taken up the offer. Out of 127 customers who received advice, 82 went on to take up the offer of a new build property. The success of this campaign is clearly evident as 82% of customers reported better budgeting skills and 92% of those who moved into new properties have avoided falling into rent arrears. The success of the pilot has meant additional resource has been allocated to roll out this approach to the 1000 new houses which the council will build over the next two years.

ACTION

Housing contributes to all three themes of the Scottish Government Programme for Government and is at the heart of our drive to secure economic growth, promote social justice, strengthen communities and tackle inequality.

More and better housing leads to:

homes people choose and can afford

homes that are safe, warm, resource efficient

homes that meet people's needs and enable them to move when they wish to jobs in construction and related industry.

Done well, good local housing provision empowers communities and creates good quality lower carbon places to live. This will lead to reductions in poverty (including fuel poverty) and inequalities and benefits to people's health, wellbeing and security through having a permanent, well maintained and warm home throughout life.

In 2014/15, the Scottish Government delivered 7,069 affordable homes, 4,376 of these being for social rent. 80% of the way into our 5-year affordable housing target we have now delivered 26,972 affordable homes, with 18,670 of these being for social rent, representing 93% of our social rent target.

The majority of our target is for social housing. Scottish social housing has always been based on a principle of affordability to tenants in low paid employment without recourse to benefits, a principle which we believe should be upheld.

However we also assist in the wider housing system, increasing supply and helping first time buyers into private housing as well as bringing forward new legislation to increase stability and security for tenants in the private rented sector.

Intermediate outcome 10: Children from low income households grow up in places that are socially sustainable

This outcome is in line with the Scottish Government's focus on increasing openness and engagement, involving local communities in decision making. The indicators under this outcome focus on community engagement, interaction and safety.

Indicator 10.1 Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree they can influence decisions affecting their local area

This is a measure of one aspect of engaged communities. In 2014, 24% of adults in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones agreed that they could influence decisions affecting their local area, compared to 23% in 2013 and 21% in 2012. The analysis excludes those who expressed no opinion. The chart opposite shows the longer-term trend in this indicator. This shows an overall upward trend in feelings of engagement between 2007 and 2014.

Feelings of engagement among adults not living in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones have been somewhat more stable, varying between 22% (in 2007) and 25% (in 2011 and 2014).

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree they can influence decisions affecting their local area

Indicator 10.2 Percentage of 13 and 15 year olds from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree that people in their area say hello and talk to each other in the street

This indicator looks at community interaction and supportiveness from the perspective of children. In 2014, 64.0% of 13 and 15 year olds living in in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones[13] (and 73.8% of those living in all other areas) agreed that people in their area say hello and talk to each other in the street, compared to 63.8% of those in the most 15% deprived datazones in 2010.

Indicator 10.3 Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who have been the victim of one or more crimes in the past year

In 2012/13, 21.3% of adults in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones were victims of one or more crimes. The chart opposite shows a decreasing crime victimisation trend in the 15% most deprived datazones[13] since 2008/09. There has been no new data on this indicator since the previous annual report. The source of the data for this indicator is a biennial survey and the next set of findings, covering 2014/15, will be published early 2016.

Crime victimisation among adults not living in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones has been consistently lower than among those in the 15% most deprived datazones, and has also decreased over time: 19.4% of adults not living in the 15% most deprived datazones were victims of one or more crimes in 2008/09, and 16.1% were victims in 2012/13.

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who have been the victim of one or more crimes in the past year

Indicator 10.4 Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say drug misuse or dealing is common in their neighbourhood

This is a measure of anti-social behaviour. In 2014, 27% in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones said drug misuse or dealing was common. This is a statistically significant decrease from the baseline of 34% in 2012. The chart opposite shows that there has been no consistent trend on this indicator over time, with percentages fluctuating between 27% and 35%.

Among adults not in the 15% most deprived datazones, the proportion who say that drug misuse is common in their area has remained relatively stable over time, at between 8% and 9%.

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say drug misuse or dealing is common in their neighbourhood

ACTION

The Scottish Government's People and Communities Fund (PCF) recognises that the changes required to make all communities sustainable will only be achieved when communities themselves play a part in delivering change. Over 2012-2015, the Fund invested £18.3 million to support a diverse range of community-led regeneration initiatives (156 in total) in our most disadvantaged communities, with a focus on preventative action and improving employability. PCF benefited from an additional £5.6 million as part of the new £10 million Empowering Communities Fund allocation, bringing the total PCF allocation for 2015/2016 to £12.6 million. This has enabled nearly 200 community-led initiatives across Scotland to be supported this year.

With a refreshed focus on tackling poverty and promoting social inclusion this PCF support will make a real difference to people living in our most significant areas of disadvantage, and include support to help mitigate welfare reform.

For example, PCF contributed £28,447 over the period 2014/2015 to support Govan Housing Association's Youth Streetwork Programme. The project is based on three stages of intervention: streetwork; diversionary activities; and targeted support such as tackling gang culture, territorialism; drug and alcohol misuse. Key outcomes included reduced levels of alcohol and drug misuse by young people involved in the programme, coupled with reduced levels of antisocial behavior.

Intermediate outcome 11: Children from low income households grow up in places that are physically sustainable

This recognises the importance of the natural and built environment in influencing quality of life and wellbeing.

Indicator 11.1 Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say their neighbourhood is a good place to live

This is a general proxy for place quality. In 2014, 85% of adults from the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones thought that their neighbourhood was a good place to live, compared to 82% in 2013 and 80% in 2012. Perceptions have gradually improved over time, as the chart opposite shows.

Among adults not in the 15% most deprived datazones, ratings of neighbourhoods have been consistently high over time, with 94%-96% of adults rating their neighbourhood as a good place to live.

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say their neighbourhood is a good place to live

Indicator 11.2 Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with quality of local public transport

Public transport is a key public service, which also has an important influence on the economic sustainability outcome through improving physical access to employment opportunities in other areas.

In 2014, 79% of adults in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones were satisfied with the quality of local public transport, compared to 77% in 2013 and 76% in 2012. As the chart opposite shows, this indicator shows little change over time.

Satisfaction with public transport is consistently higher among adults in the most deprived SIMD datazones compared to adults in other areas, with satisfaction among the latter varying between a low of 69% in 2007 and a high of 76% in 2011.

Satisfaction with public transport

Indicator 11.3 Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who can access green space within a 5-minute walk or less

This measures one aspect of the environmental quality of public spaces. In 2014, 62% of adults in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones (and 70% of adults in the rest of Scotland) could access green space within a 5-minute walk, compared to 60% in 2013 (69% in the rest of Scotland). The definition of this indicator was slightly changed and therefore the most recent findings are not directly comparable to those from 2012 reported in the previous annual report, which referred to greenspace within a 6-minute walk[14].

Intermediate outcome 12: Children from low income households grow up in places that are economically sustainable

The final intermediate outcome under the 'Places' outcome is 'children from low income households grow up in places that are economically sustainable'. The indicators under this intermediate outcome measure inequality between areas by looking at the gap between the outcomes of all adults living in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones and the outcomes for people in the rest of Scotland.

Indicator 12.1 Gap in employment rate between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

In 2013, the gap between the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones and the rest of Scotland was 18.2 percentage points, between 55.4% in the most deprived SIMD datazones and 73.6% elsewhere. This compares to 19.6 percentage points in 2012 (between 53.8% in the most deprived SIMD datazones and 73.4% elsewhere). The chart opposite shows the employment rate gap over time. This shows fairly substantial fluctuations between years, but a slight downward trend over time.

The gap was highest in 2006, at 22.1 percentage points (between 54.8% in the most deprived SIMD datazones and 76.9% elsewhere), and lowest in 2011, at 15.0 percentage points (between 57.8% in the most deprived SIMD datazones and 72.9% elsewhere).

Gap in employment rate between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

Indicator 12.2 Gap in percentage of adults with low or no qualifications between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

In 2013, the gap between the most deprived SIMD datazones and the rest of Scotland was 16.5 percentage points, with 26.7% of people having low or no qualifications in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones, compared to 10.2% elsewhere. In 2012, the gap was 15.9 percentage points (26.7% of people in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones had low or no qualifications, compared to 10.8% elsewhere).

As the chart opposite shows, the gap has gradually decreased over time, due to larger reductions in the percentage of adults with low or no qualifications in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones (from 37.7% in 2004 to 26.7% in 2013) than elsewhere (from 16.0% in 2004 to 10.2% in 2013).

Gap in percentage of adults with low or no qualifications between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

Indicator 12.3 Gap in personal internet use between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

This is included as a proxy for digital infrastructure. In 2014, the gap was 8 percentage points, with 75% in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones using the internet for personal use, compared to 83% elsewhere. This is a statistically significant decrease from 12 percentage points in 2012 (67% in the 15% most deprived SIMD datazones using the internet for personal use, compared to 79% elsewhere).

As the chart opposite shows, the gap has decreased since 2007. This is due to larger increases in internet use in the 15% most deprived datazones (from 45% in 2007 to 75% in 2014) than elsewhere (from 65% in 2007 to 83% in 2014).

Gap in personal internet use between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

ANNEX: CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK - DATA SOURCES AND YEARS

Maximising financial resources of families on low income (Pockets)

Baseline

Most recent

Baseline source year

Most recent source year

Data source

Maximised financial entitlements of families on low income

1.1

Percentage of working people earning less than Living Wage

17.6% (revised)

18.4%

2013

2014

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

Reduced household spend of families on low income

2.1

Average cost of 25-hour-per-week private nursery care for children aged 2 or over

£103.65

£99.93[15]

2013

2014

Childcare Costs Survey

Families on low income are managing finances appropriately and are accessing all financial entitlements

3.1

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles who are not managing well financially

35%

28%

2012

2014

Scottish Household Survey (SHS)

3.2

Percentage of households with children in bottom three income deciles where someone has a bank account

90%

93%

2011

2014

SHS

Parents are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

4.1

Employment rate of adults with dependent children

79.3%

80.0%

2012

2013

Annual Population Survey (APS) Household dataset

4.2

Underemployment rate of adults with dependent children

8.4%

8.0%

2012

2013

APS Household dataset

4.3

Ratio of earnings that go to the top 10% of earners, divided by the earnings of the bottom 10% (S90/S10)

16.4 (revised)

15.7

2013

2014

ASHE

4.4

Percentage of adults with dependent children with low or no qualifications (SCQF level 4 or below)

9.2%

8.9%

2012

2013

APS Household dataset

Improved life chances of children in poverty (Prospects)

Baseline

Most recent

Baseline source year

Most recent source year

Data source

Children from low income households have improving levels of physical and mental health

5.1

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles with good or very good parent assessed health

91.8%

91.8%

2010+2011 (combined)

2012+13 (combined)

Scottish Health Survey (SHeS)

5.2

Percentage of 13 and 15 year olds on free school meals with below average scores (14-40) on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS)

20%

19%

2010

2013

Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey (SALSUS)

5.3

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles eating five portions of fruit and vegetables per day

10.2%

8.9%

2010+11 (combined)

2012+13 (combined)

SHeS

5.4

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles spending 4 or more hours at a screen per day

14.1%

15.4%

2008+2010

(combined)

2012+13 (combined)

SHeS

5.5

Percentage of 15-year-old school pupils on free school meals smoking at least one cigarette a week

20.9%

16.0%

2010

2013

SALSUS

Children from low income households experience social inclusion and display social competence

6.1

Percentage of children aged 2-15 from households in bottom three income deciles who have played sport in the last week

58.2%

60.7%

2010+11 (combined)

2012+13 (combined)

SHeS

6.2

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale that find it easy to talk to mother or stepmother

80.0%

79.2%

2010

2014

Health Behaviours of School-aged Children Study (HBSC)

6.3

Percentage of 11, 13 and 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who agree that pupils in class accept them as they are

71.1%

62.1%

2010

2014

HBSC

Children from low income households have improving relative levels of educational attainment, achieving their full potential

7.1

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in numeracy

61.4% (new indicator – not in 2014 Annual Report)

53.0%

2011

2013

Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy (SSLN)

7.2

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well or very well in reading

81.6% (new indicator – not in 2014 Annual Report)

81.4%

2012

2014

SSLN

7.3

Percentage of P7 pupils from the 30% most deprived SIMD datazones performing well, very well or beyond the level in writing

60.9% (new indicator – not in 2014 Annual Report)

56.3%

2012

2014

SSLN

7.4

Mean Strengths and Difficulties score for children aged 4-12 from households in bottom three income deciles

9.4

9.2

2010+11 (combined)

2012+13 (combined)

SHeS

7.5

Percentage of adults from households with children in bottom three income deciles that are satisfied with local schools

91%

89%

2012

2014

SHS

Children from low income backgrounds are in good quality, sustained employment in line with skills and ambitions

8.1

Percentage of school leavers from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who are in a positive destination approximately nine months after leaving school

82.4%

(revised[16])

84.4%

2012/13

2013/14

Scottish Government publication: Summary statistics for attainment, leaver destinations and healthy living

8.2

Percentage of 15 year olds from bottom third of family affluence scale who think they will be in positive destinations after leaving school

86.4%

86.6%

2010

2014

HBSC

8.3

Modern Apprenticeship starts

25,284

25,247

2013/14

2014/15

Skills Development Scotland

8.4

Modern Apprenticeship completion rate

77%

74%

2013/14

2014/15

Skills Development Scotland

Children from low income households live in well-designed sustainable places (Places)

Baseline

Most recent

Baseline source year

Most recent source year

Data source

Children from low income households live in high quality, sustainable housing

9.1

Ratio of housing costs to income

9.8%

10.0%

2011/12

2013/14

Family Resources Survey (FRS)

9.2

Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with condition of home

69%

71%

2012

2013

Scottish House Conditions Survey (SHCS)

Children from low income households grow up in places that are socially sustainable

10.1

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree they can influence decisions affecting their local area

21%

24%

2012

2014

SHS

10.2

Percentage of 13 and 15 years olds from 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who agree that people in their area say hello and talk to each other on the street

63.8%

64.0%

2010

2014

HBSC

10.3

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who have been the victim of one or more crimes in the past year

21.3%

No new data available

2012/13

No new data available

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)

10.4

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say drug misuse or dealing is common in their neighbourhood

34%

27%

2012

2014

SHS

Children from low income households grow up in places that are physically sustainable

11.1

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who say their neighbourhood is a good place to live

80%

85%

2012

2014

SHS

11.2

Percentage of households in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones satisfied with quality of local public transport

76%

79%

2012

2014

SHS

11.3

Percentage of adults in 15% most deprived SIMD datazones who can access green space within a 5-minute walk or less

60% (change in indicator from 2012)

62%

2013 (change in indicator from 2012)

2014

SHS

Children from low income households grow up in places that are economically sustainable

12.1

Gap in employment rate between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

19.6 percentage points

18.2 percentage points

2012

2013

APS

12.2

Gap in percentage of adults with low or no qualifications between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

15.9 percentage points

16.5 percentage points

2012

2013

APS

12.3

Gap in personal internet use between 15% most deprived and rest of Scotland

12 percentage points

8 percentage points

2012

2014

SHS

Footnotes

1. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/9/contents

2. http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2015-16/welfarereformandwork.html

3 Note that the 2014 estimate is for April 2014, and therefore a Living Wage rate of £7.65 has been applied. The 2013 estimate is based on a rate of £7.45; 2012 estimate based on a rate of £7.20; 2011 estimate based on a rate of £7.15; 2010 estimate based on a rate of £7.00

4 Costs are presented in 2014 prices

5 The 2014 annual report reported 2011 as the latest year, as the sample size for this question was substantially reduced in 2012 and it was thought necessary to combine years. However, this decision has now been revisited and it was decided to report individual rather than combined years.

6 Revised figure.

7 Up to SCQF level 4 – Intermediate 1 or General Standard Grade

8 The sample was divided into three groups, on the basis of their combined scores for the constituent items of WEMWBS. The three groups are those with 'above average' mental wellbeing (a score of over one standard deviation above the mean score), those with 'average' mental wellbeing (a score within one standard deviation of the mean) and those with 'below average' mental wellbeing (a score of more than one standard deviation below the mean). This threefold classification has been created solely for the purposes of analysis and is not based on any evidence that an average or below average score is problematic. As a rule, WEMWBS scores are not used as a diagnostic tool.

9 Affluence is measured through the Family Affluence Scale (FAS), which is constructed on the basis of questions about material resources (number of cars, holidays, PC and bedrooms). The FAS has three categories of affluence, containing a third of the sample each.

10 'Performing beyond the level' is awarded to scripts that demonstrate skills at the next Curriculum for Excellence level.

11 Figures for 2011/12 to 2013/14 have been calculated using an updated methodology.

12 It compares median housing costs for all tenures to median net unequivalised household incomes.

13 It should be noted that postcode information required for SIMD is not available for 26% of survey respondents in the HBSC. Findings presented are for the remaining individuals only.

14 The change between 2012 and 2013 was introduced to align with greenspace access standards for local authorities

15 Adjusted for inflation – 2014 base year

16 Information on attainment and leaver destinations has been updated following methodological changes and changes to data availability. Data for 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 leaver cohorts have been updated and supersede previously published figures for these years. This means that the 2012/13 figure reported here (82.4%) is slightly higher than the 2012/13 figure reported in the 2014 Annual Report for the Child Poverty Strategy (81.9%). The 2013/14 figure uses the new methodology.